پیش‌بینی دقیق بار فیدرهای شبکه توزیع در روزهای کاری هفته با استفاده از اطلاعات گذشته بار

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد نجف‌آباد

2 اداره کل آموزش و پرورش، ناحیه یک یزد، هنرستان وطنچی

3 دانشگاه صنعتی اصفهان

چکیده

تخمین بار روزانه در شرکت‌های توزیع که به منظور ارائه این نتایج به شرکت مدیریت شبکه صورت می‌گیرد، امری لازم و ضروری است. پیش بینی بار روزانه در شبکه‌های قدرت از دیرباز مورد توجه قرار داشته است. با توجه به تأثیر پذیری زیاد الگوهای بار از عوامل مختلفی مانند عوامل آب و هوایی، اقتصادی و اجتماعی، پیش‌بینی دقیق بار امر دشواری می‌باشد. به همین دلیل در سال‌های اخیر استفاده از الگوریتم‌های هوشمند در جهت پیش‌بینی، در حال گسترش می‌باشد. در این مقاله جهت پیش‌بینی بار، با توجه به حجیم و زمان بر بودن روش‌های هوشمند از مدل‌های آماری (روش هموار سازی نمایی) استفاده شده است و با تلفیق این روش با روش تخمینی ارائه شده (معکوس اجزای اصلی) با توجه به عدم دسترسی کامل به داده‌های روز قبل از روز پیش بینی نتایج قابل قبولی حاصل می‌گردد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Short-Term Load Forecasting of Distribution Power System for Weekdays Using Old Data

نویسندگان [English]

  • Bahador Fani 1
  • Soleyman Fehresti Sani 2
  • Ehsan Adib 3
1 Islamic Azad University, Najaf Abad Branch
2 General Office of Education, Region One of Yazd, Vatanchi High School
3 Isfahan University of Technology
چکیده [English]

Estimation of daily load in distribution companies which is performed to present the results to the DMS, is necessary. Daily load forecasting of power systems has traditionally been considered. Because load patterns are influenced by several factors such as climate, economy and society, it is difficult to predict the load exactly. That's why in recent years the use of intelligent algorithms to predict it, is growing. In this project, the short-term load forecasting is performed in a hybrid approach. Due to the different behavior in different days, various methods have been used to predict the load. With studying different methods of load prediction, finally, finally exponential smoothing algorithm was used to predict the exact load in the weekdays.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Load forecasting
  • load estimation
  • load curve
  • exponential smoothing
  • inverse principal component analysis
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